Hualan Biological (002007) Review of 2019 Third Quarterly Report： Vaccine volume slightly exceeds expectations
Hualan Biological (002007) Review of 2019 Third Quarterly Report: Vaccine volume slightly exceeds expectations
The 天津夜网 company’s performance growth in the first three quarters of 2019 was bright, slightly exceeding expectations; the flu vaccine volume drove performance growth.
Albumin channel destocking is basically completed, and the rebound of the blood plate sector is worth looking forward to.
We are optimistic about the value of the company’s long-term growth; we continue to recommend and maintain the “overweight” rating.
In the first three quarters of 2019, the growth rate of performance accelerated month-on-month, slightly exceeding expectations.
The company achieved operating income in the first three quarters of 201926.
3.8 billion, net profit attributable to mother 9.
64 ppm, an increase of 29 each year.
60% and 26.
89%; net profit deducted from non-attributed mothers8.
92 ppm, an increase of 31 in ten years.
1重庆耍耍网1%; net operating cash flow 7.
62 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.
From a single quarter point of view, in Q3 2019, the company achieved revenue, net profit attributable to mothers, and net profit attributable to non-mothers12.
36 billion / 4.
5.7 billion / 4.
3 billion, an increase of 48 each year.
05% / 48.
96% / 56.
The performance growth was dazzling and slightly exceeded expectations.
Profitability has improved significantly, and flu vaccine volumes have driven growth.
The company reported an increase in overall gross profit margin2.
13PCT to 63.
41% is expected to be related to the high volume of high-margin vaccine business and the increase in albumin prices.
Selling expense ratio rose by 0.
1PCT to 11.
12%, which is expected to be related to the company’s increasing vaccine promotion in the flu season; the management expense ratio and financial expense ratio were slightly -0.
30 / -0.
09PCT to 5.
85% and -0.
According to the data issued by the China Central Inspection Office, the number of albums issued by Q3 company was 64.
70,000 sticks (-12%), which is expected to be mainly limited by the amount of pulp extracted last year;
5g conversion), breaking the exemption, the number of people exempt from issuing increased by 78% / 76% / 155%, respectively; fiber original, B exemption, crazy exemption decreased.
The total number of Q3 batches issued was basically the same as that of the same period of last year, ensuring that the continuous blood production sector maintained a steady growth.
From the perspective of the significant improvement of minority shareholders’ equity in the single quarter of Q3, the single quarter contribution of vaccine business in Q3 is expected to exceed 1.
500 million, it is expected that the single quarter Q3 vaccination volume (three prices + four prices) will reach 6 million.
Considering that the second half of the year is the peak season for influenza and the company’s Q3 single-quarter trivalent / quaternary influenza vaccine approvals have reached 406/462 million (the highest approval last year was only 8.52 million), Q4 is expected to continue to increase the volume to boost the yearPerformance growth.
The rebound of the blood sector is worth looking forward to, and long-term optimistic about the company’s growth value.
At the end of the reporting period, the company’s inventory fell further to 11.
900 million, the blood industry in the clearing of channel inventory is significantly better.
Since the 4th quarter of 2018, the company has vigorously strengthened the promotion of pulp donators and achieved initial results; Chongqing Liangping single pulping station has obtained a single plasma license, and it will gradually increase to more than 1,000 tons in 2019.
In addition, after the completion of the production line transformation, the number of factor product approvals is expected to increase significantly, and the gross profit per ton of pulp still needs to be improved.
The reported vaccine company’s tetravalent influenza virus split vaccine 1 # line was completed and passed GMP certification, and the influenza vaccine production capacity was further increased, so the company’s mad vaccine and tetanus vaccine are expected to be approved next year.
Gene Company has obtained 7 monoclonal antibodies for clinical trials, of which adalimumab, trastuzumab, rituximab, and bevacizumab have all entered clinical phase III, which is expected to provide newPoints of profit growth.
Risk factors: Product prices fluctuate, monoclonal antibody research and development progress exceeds expectations, and sales channel inventory pressure changes.
Profit forecast, evaluation and rating.
The company is a domestic leader in blood products, and the volume of pulp extraction and batch issuance is at the forefront of the industry. The influenza vaccine business is expected to open up new space for growth.
Taking into account the company’s rapid volume of vaccine business in the future and the accelerated growth of the blood products business channel after the expectation, the company’s EPS forecast for 2019-2021 is raised to 1.
48 yuan (was 0.
34 yuan), maintaining the “overweight” level.