Depth-Company-Ningbo Huaxiang (002048)： Achieved slightly better than expected value of supporting Tesla value promotion
Depth * Company * Ningbo Huaxiang (002048): The performance is slightly higher than expected The value of supporting Tesla is expected to increase
The company released a quick report on its 2019 performance, and initially realized a total of 173 operating income.
10,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.
0%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company9.
90,000 yuan, an increase of 34 in ten years.
7%; of which, operating income reached 56 in the fourth quarter.
0 million yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.
0%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company.
20,000 yuan, an increase of 38 in ten years.
The decline in domestic automobile production and sales in Q4 2019 narrowed, and the company’s main customers, FAW-Volkswagen, performed well. The batch production of thermoforming projects coupled with the reduction of losses by German Huaxiang resulted in a slightly higher-than-expected performance.
Tesla’s domestic production progress continues to exceed expectations, and the company’s supporting Tesla value is expected to increase significantly and will continue to benefit.
In addition, we have raised our earnings forecast and expect the company’s earnings for 2019-2021 to be 1.
57 yuan, 1.
91 yuan and 2.
13 yuan, maintain BUY rating.
The key points of the support level benefited from the increase in sales volume of the public, thermoforming and overseas loss reduction, and the performance slightly exceeded expectations.
Although domestic passenger car sales fell by 7 in 2019.
4% (by retail association of the Association), but the company’s main customer FAW-Volkswagen (forward sales +4.
3%, +13 in the fourth quarter.
6%), SAIC Volkswagen (expected sales -2.
5%, +8 in the fourth quarter.
7%) perform long-distance industries.
In addition, in 2019, Changchun Huaxiang’s nine thermoforming production lines have been put into production and the sales volume of supporting FAW-Volkswagen has increased. The operating difference of Germany Huaxiang has decreased, and the company’s performance has achieved high growth against the market, slightly higher than expected.
The value of supporting Tesla is expected to increase significantly.
Tesla’s domesticization progress continues to exceed expectations. In January 2020, the mass production of Model 3 will be delivered to the outside world. The Model Y produced in the United States will be delivered in March.
The market space of 3 / Y-type regions is as high as millions of units, and outstanding product competitiveness will bring about an explosion in production and sales.
Considering the increase in the localization rate of Model 3 from 30% to 100%, and the fixed-point advancement of Model Y in the future, the relevant industry chain will continue to benefit.
The company’s overall supporting ModelS / X aluminum trim and domestic Model 3 intelligent rearview mirrors, etc., are expected to cost more than 1,000 yuan; the Y-type is expected to increase parts such as thermoforming, trims, etc., and the supporting value is expected to increase significantly to 2,000-3,000Will continue to benefit from localization of Tesla.
Thermoforming output will 武汉夜网论坛 increase, and overseas expectations are expected to decrease.
In terms of thermoforming, Changchun Huaxiang’s nine thermoforming production lines have been put into production in 2019, but they are almost full production. In 2020, they will gradually increase their production capacity and increase revenue.
In terms of overseas business, measures such as business integration and layoffs have been continuously promoted, and gradually reduced in 2020, and the trend will turn from loss to profit in the future.
Thermoforming production and sales and overseas losses reduction will promote the company’s rapid growth in performance, promising future development.
In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, domestic short-term domestic automobile production and sales are under pressure, but the subsequent backlog of demand is gradually released, and the trend of bottoming out in the medium and long term remains unchanged.
The quality of the company’s customers is expected to continue to benefit.
We estimate that the company’s estimated earnings for 2019-2021 will be 1.
57 yuan, 1.
91 yuan and 2.
13 yuan, optimistic about the development prospects of supporting public Volkswagen and Tesla, maintain the Buy rating.
The main risks faced by the rating are 1) the growth rate of automobile sales is expected; 2) overseas losses have fallen short of expectations.