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Chengde Lulu (000848): 3Q19 performance is stable, focus on 4Q19 peak season performance

24/03/2020 0 Comment

Chengde Lulu (000848): 3Q19 performance is stable, focus on 4Q19 peak season performance

The 3Q19 results are in line with our expectations. The company’s 3Q19 results for 2019: revenue from January to September17.

700 million (+5.

9%), net profit attributable to mother 3.
.

600 million (+3.

6%); 19Q3 single quarter revenue increased by +4.

3%, net profit attributable to mother +10 for ten years.

4%, the performance is in line with our expectations.

Development trend 3Q19 revenue growth is stable, focus on channel inventory levels and 4Q19 peak season catalyst.

The company’s 3Q19 revenue increased by 4.

3%, achieving stable growth, basically consistent with our expectations. Even according to grassroots research, the company’s product channel inventory level is high, but benefited from the Mid-Autumn Festival peak season catalyst, we judge the company to achieve relatively benign product sales in 3Q19.

Looking forward to 4Q19, if the channel inventory can reach a good level, we expect the company to benefit from the Spring Festival, which will boost the 4Q19 peak season sales in advance, and the low base in the same period last year (4Q18 revenue also fell 18).

8%) while achieving positive growth.

In the third quarter of 19, gross profit margin rose month-on-month, focusing on subsequent cost fluctuations.

Gross profit margin for the third quarter of 19 was 52.

6% for one year.

3ppt, chain +1.

2ppt, we believe that it mainly benefited from the price increase of previous products and the increase of new products with high gross profit contributed to the upgrade of product structure.

According to grassroots research, the market price of almond raw materials has increased. We expect the gross profit margin to improve in 4Q19, but the company will increase the price of its products to cope with the pressure of increasing costs.

Market competition has intensified, and the 杭州桑拿体验网 sales expense ratio has continued to rise.

The company’s sales expenses in the first three quarters were 22%, +0 per year.

8ppt is still at a high level, and we judge that the main reason is the increased market investment, and the company actively explores new channels such as catering.

We believe that the company’s sales expense ratio stays above 20% is a reasonable level. At present, the company is actively exploring new advertising models, adjusting the advertising mode, and working hard to improve the effectiveness of advertising. We believe that the company’s increased investment in branding willLong-term income growth has played a positive role.

Earnings forecasts and estimates remain unchanged from 2019/2020 EPS forecasts of 0.

43/0.

46 yuan.

Maintain target price of 8.

7 yuan, corresponding to 20/19 北京桑拿洗浴保健 times P / E in 2019/2020, maintaining a neutral rating, the current price corresponds to 18/17 times P / E in 2019/2020, with 13% of upside.

Risks Raw material costs fluctuate, category demand changes, industry competition intensifies, and food safety incidents.